Author Topic: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy  (Read 20719 times)

Bulky

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Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« on: September 08, 2015, 04:40:35 PM »
Came across this in my alumni magazine.  Glad for a bit of rational thought and concrete data in the midst of shark mania.

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/july/shark-attack-risk-070815.html

For those who don't want to make the jump, here's the statistical summary:

"The chances of being bitten by a shark are slim, according to the California-focused study:

    Scuba divers are 6,897 times more likely to be hospitalized for diving-related decompression sickness than for white shark bites.
    Ocean-goers are 1,817 times more likely to drown than die from a shark attack.
    Scuba divers have a 1-in-136 million chance of being bitten.
    Surfers have a 1-in-17 million chance of being bitten."


By comparison, a quick Google search reveals that the chances of being killed in a car accident over the course of one's lifetime in the US are 1 in 470.  Admittedly, I haven't looked carefully into the study methods to see if it's sound to make this an apples-to-apples comparison, but I think the point is made.

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surf4food

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2015, 05:21:51 PM »
Just don't eat a Snickers peanut butter bar before going in the water.   
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breakbad

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2015, 06:26:33 PM »
Right on! But I still like the coconut tree stat. Some more good ones: Vending Machines, Hot Tap Water, Autoerotic Asphyxiation, Champagne Corks

http://wnyyradio.com/news/25-shocking-things-more-likely-to-kill-you-than-a-shark/


Weasels wake

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2015, 07:08:58 PM »
"I love those stats!"
It takes a quiver to do that.

OUTSIDEWAVE

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2015, 07:50:51 PM »
I think I wilts' worry cause I haven't won the lottery.  so the odds  are.....don't say it i don't want to jinx my self
SEA BIRDS THEY DO TOUCH AND GO AS THE WORLD JUST TANGOES BY.... SO I SADDLE UP MY SEAHORSE WITH MY FLYROD IN MY HAND.... 10'3 King custom  10'6"  c4 da beachboy

supthecreek

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2015, 11:04:04 PM »
Bulkie.... Frenzy? ....."the point is made"... "Glad for a bit of rational thought and concrete data"

No offense, but odds don't mean shit to us.... when almost every day, for the past 2 months, someone I know, has had an up-close and personal with a large GW.
Our 15 mile stretch of beach, has 100's of documented GWs, constantly cruising in the surf/swim zone right along the shore..... BIG ones.....not the cute 7'ers that hang at Dogpatch.

No one I know, is overly concerned... but we all realize our reality.....Sooner or later.... a GW will make a mistake.... and, it will happen to one of us, not to the number cruncher, safely behind the desk in Stamford.
Odds are funny that way

Just to put it in perspective....here are a few pics from this summer... a few are from the last year, but I included them because my friends are in them.
You know what they say.... "for everyone you take a picture of................"

I post pictures of what goes on around here because it is interesting..... and I don't really give a hoot what the odds makers say.... Solo dawn patrol sessions, have that extra "zing" to them.  ;)

Sorry about the picture SPAM.... but how do the "stats" balance this out?


eastbound

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2015, 05:33:10 AM »
methods matter and i assume that stanford takes care with this, but the stats you cite beg many questions:

first of all, how many "surfers" are there in CA? and over what time frame is there a 1 in 17mm chance of being bitten?

does "california focussed" mean only CA data included?

how about in FL, where bites have gotten quite common--few deaths but many bites.

how about madagascar or reunion islands?

hope we arent soon asking "how about cape cod, nantucket and marths's vineyard?"

i feel safer standing, that's for sure--in all circumstances but for lightening storms! since my little scare in july, i get f outta there if any chance of lightening.
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eastbound

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2015, 06:01:33 AM »
lightening storms--frenzies of activity where one can't get food
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OUTSIDEWAVE

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2015, 08:46:37 AM »
yes stats  can manipulated easily. I doubt there aRE MANY GW In the Mediterranean sea.
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PonoBill

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2015, 10:30:20 AM »
I've been close to a ridiculous number of sharks in my life. Certainly more than 300. In all those encounters not a single shark was interested in me other than obvious caution or outright fear. Doesn't mean it can't happen, obviously it does, but it hasn't. If you guys want to freak out about the sharks on the cape, then nothing anyone is going to say will stop you. But understand you're dealing with a phobia.  A shark comes near someone. Nothing happens--everyone is scared spitless. A shark eats a seal. Hakuna Matata and the circle of life. You might as well freak out because a dog eats a bone, or Stoneaxe eats a sandwich. If it was an Orca tossing the seal around like a cat does a mouse everyone would paddle close to watch. Great White! RUN!

Those stats are pretty useful, moreso than comparisons of total population vs. coke machines. It's populations exposed specifically to the threat. Discount them as you will, but they have value in that they gauge the risk. The limitation of statistics is that it deals best with large samples. The probability of me meeting the prefect girl and marrying her is nearly zero, until it happens, and then it's one.
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SUPcheat

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2015, 10:48:40 AM »
We need some Benihana chefs on SUP with sharp knives and attitude to go out and turn those pesky GWs into SUP board sushi.
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Bean

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2015, 10:53:26 AM »
I don't think GW's make good table fare.  Plus, we can't overlook the professional courtesy thing...

marcioferrari

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2015, 11:05:06 AM »
Here in Brazil there is a beach where if you enter in the water the risk of being attacked by a shark must be around 10% - not GW, but bull and tiger sharks.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-radio-and-tv-19720455

There is a video of an attack at the end of this web page:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2375911/Shark-attack-drowning-Brazilian-Bruna-Gobbi-18-later-dies-result-loss-blood.html

Bulky

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2015, 11:12:32 AM »
Probably haven't thought this through enough to go toe-to-toe with you on this, Creek.  You make a good point.  It does seem the researchers did observe that there are geographic seasonal concentrations.

"The best way to avoid a shark encounter is to avoid locations and seasons where risk is highest, the study's authors advise. For example, the riskiest time and place for California surfers is October and November in Mendocino County. That risk can be reduced 25-fold if you surf in March, and more than 1,600-fold if you surf in March between San Diego and Los Angeles."

I would expect this study to be more familiar with the west coast but it would appear that similar observations on seasonal risk could be made for where you surf.  FWIW, maybe they are number-crunchers behind a desk but at the Hopkins Marine Station the desks would be pretty close to the water.   ;)

I posted this mainly in response to the stream of Facebook posts I get of every shark sighting/attack that gets reported in the media as if that's supposed to dissuade me from going out.  We don't see abnormally high numbers here, but the ocean is habitat and it's no doubt sharks are there.  With paddling almost daily, I'm certain I've been much closer than I'd be comfortable knowing, but as PB says, most of the time the shark could care less about me.  That's been my response to a bunch of footage lately shot from drones and helicopters of sharks in close proximity--yes, they are right there--and completely disinterested in the surfers.  In this respect, the probability stats help retain proper perspective but they won't induce me to paddle around the Farallons and think I'm safe.

The one statistic that is high is that 10 out of every 10 shark encounters that's been even the least bit documented by even a grainy cell phone video will make national newscasts and include the vapid observations of the dunce in the anchor chair about "shark-infested" waters.
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PonoBill

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Re: Sharks: Facts vs. Frenzy
« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2015, 11:28:56 AM »
We need some Benihana chefs on SUP with sharp knives and attitude to go out and turn those pesky GWs into SUP board sushi.

Humans currently kill between 100 million and 300 million sharks per year. Mostly not for significant amounts of food. Do you really think we need to kill more?

Sharks come into the Chatham area because there's a lot of food. It's like illegal aliens coming for jobs. You aren't likely to stop them as long as there's something attracting them. Kill one and three take it's place--the sharks that is. You don't see a lot of Mexicans sneaking into Guatemala. In both cases a natural balance is being restored. Takes time, and the stuff that people do that is poorly considered simply exacerbates the problem. Maybe Trump can take on the shark problem once he "solves" immigration. 

Bulky, I've done about 30 dives in the Farallons as I recall. For some of them a shark cage was available but never used. Generally the visibility is pretty poor--lots of current. I saw a lot of abalone, lots of strange anemones and odd color on the rocks that looks like technicolor lichen. Elephant seals, a few sharks, one of good size, the biggest ling cod I ever saw, and beaucoup trash. The big risk was getting swept too far from the boat to be found. I could see shore, but it would be a very long swim just to get to the base of some bodacious cliffs. As I recall it's about 30 miles.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2015, 12:00:32 PM by PonoBill »
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