Author Topic: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse  (Read 16563 times)

SEA

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Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« on: March 28, 2013, 06:18:39 PM »

Weasels wake

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2013, 06:35:57 PM »
A "chartman"-esk theory, eeh, changing times, change charts. I hope he's wrong, but who knows.
It takes a quiver to do that.

Chan

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2013, 07:00:31 PM »
I love charts.  In my experience, a triple top, or any common chart pattern, alone is not enough to formulate a solid prediction.

In most instances I’d go with the Oracle of O but this is a unique situation.  We are heading into uncharted territory and charts will be helpful navigation tools for about 5 minutes at a time.  Check this out; economists don’t have any prognostic formulas that apply: 

China's real estate bubble



piece of 8

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2013, 07:08:45 PM »
I remember in about 2006 or 2007  when I had a conversation with a guy in his fifties who had been through bad times before. I never really had alot of respect for him at the time... seem sort of a drunkard. I'll never forget when he said " Just wait until these people with the ARMS and the interest free loans try to refinance when housing starts to burst its bubble, then watchout!" I casually dismissed it until it came to fruition in 2008. Most people in their 20's or 30's did not remember the big recession during the late 80's , early 90's. Here was a guy that did and drew from his experience.
    Paulson made billions off the housing bubble.  Yet this was a regular working guy making the same prediction. I am no longer a skeptic regarding these big  economic events that people predict. Its just choosing  the correct one. I really hope this one doesn't come to pass.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2013, 07:17:57 PM by piece of 8 »

surfcowboy

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2013, 07:12:24 PM »
And so if we assume this is true and worry about it for the next three months what does that do?

If you guys need me, I'll be surfing.

Chan

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2013, 07:20:15 PM »
I am no longer a skeptic regarding these big  economic events that people predict. Its just choosing  the correct one. come to pass.

I'm with you Pof8.   My gut isn't with the sky is falling crowd on this one but I'm not betting my lunch on the advice of my intestines either.

WB quote circa 2007

"It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked.”
« Last Edit: March 28, 2013, 07:42:26 PM by Admin »

Beasho

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2013, 08:01:36 PM »
The original set of charts is a big advertising campaign (e.g. Newsmax, potential scam).

They could be right, but timing these things is next to impossible.

The 60 minutes article is more concerning.  Those guys (Chinese) are going to EXPLODE.   Where is the SHORT button?

The only problem is that they may stave it off for 6 months, maybe 6 years.  As they say the market can remain irrational longer than you can solvent.  

Think 1637 Tulip Bulb craze (a single tulip bulb in Holland selling for 10X annual wages) . . . Japanese Real Estate in the late 80's (The Imperial Palace valued more than all the real estate in California), Thailand & 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (never came back), Iceland, Ireland, Greece (read Boomerang by Michael Lewis), Apple, today Cyprus and next. . . China!

Awesome!

Sit back and watch the fireworks.

« Last Edit: March 28, 2013, 08:03:56 PM by Beasho »

Chan

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2013, 08:07:47 PM »
The interesting thing in the China scenario is we don't have a communist/capitalist economic event to chart.  I think it might look like...


lucabrasi

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2013, 08:59:24 PM »
Amazed when I heard last week but not completely surprised when I was told Vegas is hopping again. Miles of new construction while miles of repos sit around.  Lots of work again that way. Where are all the people going to come fromm to buy this stuff? Are Phoenix and Florida going off in the same way?
Watching prices and activity down that way very casually there for a few years it seemed residential prices had hit bottom in 2011 or so and had started back on the slight uptick from there. With amazing  amounts of existing inventory, advertised or not but owned by somebody, something has got to correct itself at some time and I don't think it will take as long this time.  

SEA

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2013, 01:36:47 AM »
Follow the Billionaires !!!   These guys I believe know how to play this game.  ???
___________________________________________________________________
Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

After all, the stock market is still in the midst of its historic rally. Real estate prices have finally leveled off, and for the first time in five years are actually rising in many locations. And the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized.

It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.



PaddleAnything

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2013, 04:26:32 AM »
I remember in about 2006 or 2007  when I had a conversation with a guy in his fifties who had been through bad times before. I never really had alot of respect for him at the time... seem sort of a drunkard. I'll never forget when he said " Just wait until these people with the ARMS and the interest free loans try to refinance when housing starts to burst its bubble, then watchout!"

In 2003, we did a refi with a 5 year arm reducing our payment 35%.  Toward the end of the arm, we attempted to refi and our bank wouldn't even return a call.  They were not interested in doing a deal as they wanted the interest to reset.  Other banks just wanted to play the monthly payment slip in fees and crap at closing BS game.

Our loan reset in Dec of 2008.  T bill plus 2% so the APR went from 4.25 to 2.35.  It has stayed the same or decreased each year.  The bank has been wanting to refi us ever since 2009. 

I agree the market will drop 60% at some unknown time just like CA will have an earthquake.  The problem is that no one will be able to predict how the Fed and the gov't. will respond.  Prior to 2008, I don't think anyone would predict that the T-bill would be at .25% from 2009 to 2013. 

My problem is a bit different than most.  Anyone that purchased a house from 2005-08 was screwed regardless.  I blame it on yankees.  The mass exit from the north to the south and southwest drove up housing prices creating the bubble.  I am constantly amazed at the crap construction on terrible lots people will buy.  Just another Gilded Age in America. 

Bean

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2013, 06:33:42 AM »
I blame it on yankees.  The mass exit from the north to the south and southwest drove up housing prices creating the bubble.  

Not exactly, it was "relaxed" lending policies that created the housing bubble.  Housing in the south and southwest simply offered a cheaper alternative for these otherwise non-qualifying homebuyers to settle.

Cardiff Sweeper

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Re: Scientist Predicts Market Collapse
« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2013, 10:08:59 AM »
People want sh!t they can't afford, and think that by owning more stuff, they'll have fuller and happier lives.

Truth is, you'll just have more to worry about taking care of.

First excuse out of someone's mouth, "Leave?  I can't just get up and go on vacation, I've got too much stuff here..."

That's your choice, and used to be mine...Lots of toys, that just took me away from the ocean.  I sold the motorcycles, and the cars, and even many surfboards that weren't being used.  It's an ongoing process of downsizing.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2013, 10:13:07 AM by Cardiff Sweeper »

PonoBill

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2013, 11:56:25 AM »
Downsizing is a fabulous feeling. After spending 2/3 of my life accumulating it's liberating to go the other way. I have a lot further to go, but I've sold or given away a lot more stuff than I used to have.

As far as doom and gloom goes, there will be recessions, Asia will rise and sink, people will go through brutally hard times. You are all gonna die. All true, all deep in the category of "so what". Anyone that offers to fix any of that for you wants something--even if it's only your belief in their oracular wisdom.

Live your life, find ways to be happy. Be tough when it's hard, be careful when it's uncertain, be good to your friends and family. That's about it. The rest is a bunch of crap.
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

PaddleAnything

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Re: Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2013, 12:14:25 PM »
I blame it on yankees.  The mass exit from the north to the south and southwest drove up housing prices creating the bubble.  

Not exactly, it was "relaxed" lending policies that created the housing bubble.  Housing in the south and southwest simply offered a cheaper alternative for these otherwise non-qualifying homebuyers to settle.

You're right, I can't blame yankees for it.  The good ol' boys down south sold  and drained the swamp and built the poorly constructed housing.  The good ol' boy dirty commissioners kept the building standards low to reduce cost.  The banks just greased the wheels with government insured loans.   I do like giving the yankees a certain amount of blame just cause so many of them took the hook. 

I'm glad I've always been cheap so I've never had the problem of down sizing.  I'm pretty happy living in a small house, driving a paid off truck and buying gear as needed.  Living in a small house makes you think before you buy, "Where in the hell am I going to put it?"


 


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