mapping/planning a possible DW run

[finsider]

Winter here on Florida's gulf coast brings cold fronts sliding down over the Gulf of Mexico every week or so bringing our usual strong onshore winds with choppy surf conditions. Nearshore swells are typically around 3-4ft with winds constant out of the West or Northwest at a steady 20mph.   

Typically I surf the day after the cold front passes as the winds and surf clean up a bit, but was considering a DW run with the strong winds of the front. Since winds and swells are consistantly onshore, I picked the spot below on Sanibel Island as a great launch site that would run me straight into Fort Myers Beach. 

I have been in these waters for many years on boats in the roughest seas, and surfed since I was 10 so I have a pretty good idea of the conditions, and will try to plan any run with an incoming tide to prevent cross chop coming out of the pass.

I have two possible launch sites as shown below. The one closer to the pass will likely experience smaller swells but is a safer shorter route for a first go at this. The red lines I considered the "cone of uncertainty" as we know how DW runs cant be predicted. So this first run is possibly 4 -7 linear miles. 

The second map shows a longer possible run that will be more offshore with the larger swells and deeper water.  Its 10-15 miles depending on where I end up.  The swells, wind, and currents can only push me closer to shore. 

So I am only in the planning stages but wanted to get some insight from you guys who do this all the time.  I am open to suggestions and criticisms, if you convince it me it's not a good run ill just keep surfing . I also attached an image of today's conditions, which have winds a little lighter and more from the North then I would want with the front that passed yesterday.

Thanks in advance for all your help.

[headmount]

Looks like a safe run with the relativity of the wind and the final shoreline.  10 miles is long (1.25- 1.75 hrs)  and right on the edge of needing some sort of glucose hit, 15 miles and definitely you'll need something more than water.  Can you find someone solid to go with?  Let us know how it goes. 

I think it's great that paddlers find new DW runs.  it's like finding an unknown surf spot.  Good on you.

[1paddle2paddle]

That is cool that you are planning the run.  I guess I would want to know how "northerly" is northerly for those WNW winds.  I would not want to be paddling against a side wind coming from any more than "more-side-than-tail-wind", if that makes sense.

I think it would probably be best/safest to try the shorter run first, to make sure the conditions are favorable before attempting the longer paddle.  Also, as HM recommends go with at least one partner and take some safety precautions in case things do not go as planned.

[finsider]

Thanks guys.  All safety precautions would be taken, I have a personal locator beacon and other goodies scavenged from a liferaft. I'm planning on more than an hour so good call on the glucose HM. 

When I do paddle with others around here it is usually flatwater and I wouldnt really trust them in the open waters in those conditions.  If any Zoners in the area would want to join me let me know.  If I can't find anyone I may have a boat that can follow me if I can convince him to take his boat out in those conditions $$.

I will try the shorter run first, my only concern is cross current with the pass right there, will definitely plan for an incoming tide.  My only worry is that with the shorter run the swells will be reduced and some winds blocked by the island.

Later in the winter the cold fronts drop down more and the winds become straight from the west to east which would be more ideal. I know DJ has discussed that winds need to be around 25mph for a good run and that should not be a problem with the stronger fronts that come through here.

[1paddle2paddle]

If you get 25 mph straight westerlies, or close to straight westerlies, that looks like it has the potential of a good downwind run, especially the longer run which has less land blockage.