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Messages - PonoBill

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1
If you have some trouble sleeping this paper--Evaluation of the performance of GNSS-based velocity estimation algorithms--is guaranteed to conk you out quickly: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s43020-022-00080-4?fromPaywallRec=false

2
Yup, GPS speed is great for average speed, but location precision for high-quality GPS units is +/- 6 feet. Way better than it used to be, but there are still spike errors and high sample rates don't fix the issue, they make it worse at the same time they are making the average speed more accurate by providing more samples to average over short periods. But if you suddenly move 12 feet (the worst case error) in .1 microseconds your GPS will think you're hauling ass if you're standing still  Most good systems don't report instantaneous errors, even what looks like instantaneous speed isn't. It's an average taken over some number of samples with a smoothing algorithm applied. For a high sample rate, like 10KHz, a system would have about 10 samples per microsecond. More than enough to discard spikes and get a reasonable average even if the screen updates at 1KHz (they don't, it's more like 200hz, though shitty ones might update at a low enough rate to get flicker from LED lights or the backlight). In other words, the errors are there, but nobody cares. And yes, of course, the errors can compound, but usually they don't. Some racing bodies used to require Doppler GPS measurement for record attempts. But after a quick google search I couldn't find any that do anymore. Doppler directly measures speed instead of calculating it. But it's like preferring vinyl records to CDs or MP3, Laserdisk to MP4. Analog vs. Digital. 

3
Random / Re: At what age did you, or do you plan to retire?
« on: April 04, 2024, 10:40:39 PM »
I go back and forth on this question all the time. I am 63 my wife is 50 and we own a sales agency and rep different brands in the Caribbean. It's profitable,  fun and every island trip a business expense, so I don't see me retiring for a few years but you never know.  `

There's no good reason to retire if your work doesn't beat the shit out of you. I have some acquaintances in Hood River who do physically taxing labor, but they are making 2 to 3X more money than they ever did before and can't find anyone to take over their business. Retirement was a useful concept when people died at 60. Not so much when you will probably see 90.

4
Random / Re: Some days technology just fucks with you
« on: April 04, 2024, 10:34:53 PM »
I fed some convoluted Python and C++ code into Chat GTP to try to figure out what it did and how it worked. I wrote it a few years ago, found it recently, and as usual with my shitty code I had no idea WTF I did, and why I did it. Interestingly enough Chat GTP was kind of useful. Not great, it's not like I could just rebuild the circuitry I designed it for (automatic level and height control for a 1978 GMC motor home using a little compressor, a bunch of solenoid-controlled air valves, and some height sensors to inflate airbags), but it did tell me what it did, more or less how, and highlighted some likely bugs. The project is abandoned, so I can safely stuff the code in the archive of "shit I'll never touch again". I'd delete it, but then I'd need it. Now if I could just find the code I wrote for my foil towbot.

5
GPS speed is always inaccurate in short burst since it's purely time/distance with an error band that can go either way. No modern GPS is useful for timing. Creaky old GPS handhelds that used Doppler for speed measurement are the gold standard for speed tests, you might be able to find one on ebay for a few thousand bucks since no one makes a GPS Doppler timer anymore and the old ones are slowly dying despite the elaborate care anyone who has one lavishes on it. It's like Blackwing pencils which used to eBay for 40 bucks each for an unused one until someone bought the old factory and started making them again. Now they're a mere $2.50 each for suckers like me who love them.

6
Random / Re: At what age did you, or do you plan to retire?
« on: April 03, 2024, 07:46:18 PM »
I'm a bit surprised anyone remembers that I was working on a book called the retirement trap. I barely did. I never finished it, it's got a lot of scratch pad stuff in it that I never developed or edited, and it's never been edited for style, brevity, accuracy or even decent grammar and spelling. But here you go: this link should work: https://www.ponostyle.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Retirement-Trap-1663863538.pdf

7
Alula is light and strong, but not particularly durable. I've seen a few Allula wings that appear to be delaminating. I don't know if that's the right word for what is going on, but it doesn't look good. The newer fabrics have a lot of promise but designers don't seem to be able to get the best out of them yet. I bought a new 4.5 F-One V3 when my V2 F-one disappeared. The new wing has some nice design features and lots of high-tech fabrics. But the center of effort is far forward that the wing can barely be depowered. I might push through and learn to use it, but I found my V2 4.5 and I'm back to using that so it isn't getting much of a chance.

8
It occurs to me on reflection that snowkiting is probably not a useful comparison. I'd think in most conditions a kite in snow would never have liquid water on it to freeze into ice. The mental picture I draw is of a fairly thick patch of ice, perhaps on both sides of the fabric. The wind force on the canopy stretches and flexes the canopy, creating a sharp-edged layer that the fabric stretches across. That doesn't sound good to me.

Think about this is making me cold. It's less than 70 degrees this morning in Maui, I'm going to put on a jacket, or at least a long-sleeved shirt. Freezing.

9
Great review. You make me want to pick an aspect of wingfoiling and stick to it though at 105Kg I don't think a Carver is for me. If for no other reason than kneeling waterstarts are currently my limit.  I'm battling a deteriorating hip lately that I might have to do something drastic about. I hate the thought of spending time off the water, but I might not have a choice. At any rate, I'm at the point where I need to concentrate my efforts to see any progress--I've been doing the same shitty stuff for years now. Mowing the lawn is better than nothing, but I'm sure I can do better than that.
 

10
Gear Talk / Re: surf SUP volume
« on: March 23, 2024, 09:13:48 AM »
I've ridden both 10'X32 and 9'6"X31" and liked them both. My balance has declined a bit and I had some issues with the 9'6" but the 10' was fine. The 10'4" surfs so well and is so easy to use that I'm just kind of addicted to it. I have a 9' Foote custom that is also surprising. It's a great board, surfs and turns great, not quite the "one board quiver" the production boards are, but it's great. I don't know what the "William Foote" thing is about, he probably couldn't get Bill as a Facebook name, but yes, it's him or an incredibly ambitious scammer.

I don't surf much anymore, I'm basically a foil addict, but my brother Bob was here for two weeks and it revived my interest. I'm going to get out on both boards and see how quickly it comes back. I don't get enough exercise foiling, especially since I'm mostly winging, and I miss the glide. When I was learning foil surfing I found SUP surfing really screwed up my progress, but I think that issue is over with.

11
Gear Talk / Re: surf SUP volume
« on: March 23, 2024, 02:31:12 AM »
Bill Foote's 10'4" Triton is a surprising board. Whatever else you get, hang onto that thing. As big as it is, it turns amazingly well--it's the easiest big board I've ever used--surfs well, paddles fast, and catches anything. I have no theory as to why it works so well other than the somewhat strange rails which seem to have more rocker than the rest of the board. I bought one and shipped it to my brother because I knew it would be great for him (it was, and still is), I bought another for myself, and then years later, when mine was beat to shit I found a used one in good shape and snapped it up. It's still my goto board.

I'm also a big fan of the L41s. I had an 8'8" that I loved--especially for the speed.  Mine seemed almost as fast as a foil board.

12
Random / Re: GPT 5, Sam Altman, What's coming
« on: March 17, 2024, 05:30:44 PM »
77. I'm definitely slowing down a bit mentally, things that were easy a few years ago are a bit more difficult. Inevitable, I guess. Still having fun though.

13
Random / Re: Vision Pro
« on: March 09, 2024, 11:06:32 AM »
Very clever to claim and focus on the adventure/SUV/truck space. I think anyone making sedans will have a super tough time staying in business, even if China is somehow blocked. There's no reason a sub-200-mile EV sedan can't be made for less than $20K and still turn a profit. As with the current ICE market, the profit margin for sedans is slim and disappearing completely quickly. People are still whinging about EVs being unrepairable and taking too long to charge. Both claims are just monumentally stupid when you factor in day-to-day use (you get up in the morning and your battery is always full--no fueling) and zero maintenance. A new EV will cost about the same as three years of fuel and maintenance of an ICE car.

The space Rivian is carving out should remain profitable for a lot longer.

14
Random / Re: Vision Pro
« on: March 06, 2024, 11:00:24 PM »
Ask anyone who shuttles with me, smell is critical in a vehicle.

15
Random / Re: Wacky PV stuff
« on: March 05, 2024, 05:59:06 PM »
Actually even premium PV panels are pretty cheap now, but the ultra bargains are from Santan Solar. They're cheaper than plywood and they have frequent BOGO sales.

I'm going to be using a Tesla model 3 battery, you can buy the long range (75KW) batteries on ebay for about $7500, the standard-range batteries(62KWH) are less--about $5K. The big trick for using these panels safely is a good battery management system. Unfortunately the best one (from EVTV is expensive, 7500 bucks, or $20K installed and testing on a long-range battery.

EVTV is a company started by Jack Rickard, a legend in the DIY EV car world. He unfortunately passed away about a year ago and the company is now being run by (I think) his daughter and son-in-law. The daughter seems very smart and capable, but Jack was a wizard, though old and irascible. The easiest way to understand what I'm up to is to watch this video, though you have to sit through Jack's musings, some of which are interesting, some brilliant, some wacky: https://youtu.be/7zO11Q237nA?si=uR15xktHA6hhGxhl

This might not be the right video. He made a lot of them.

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