Standup Zone Forum
General => Random => Topic started by: surfafrica on February 22, 2017, 01:56:09 PM
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I'm a big fan of where self-driving cars are headed and what it means for a large portion of society. The potential short-term effects on jobs is scary, but I'm confident we'll adapt (maybe all the workers who rely on driving for a living can move into the coal industry Trump is re-booting?).
For those interested, here are two impressive demo vids....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vfgjemwc9NU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMvgtPN2IBU
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Personally, I'm not a fan of driving. The less I do, the happier I am. I live at the beach, so I drive very little. Can you say "chauffeur". Even better if it doesn't talk and take up a seat. A car with no front seat and a bed, all the way to Mammoth. Or better yet Whistler. Forget texting and driving, just bring your laptop and a pillow. Sounds great.
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Wonder how the DUI laws will handle them....
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I'm also not a fan of self driving vehicles. The bottom line; I want to be in control of a vehicle when I'm alone inside itwhich means I want to be "behind the wheel steering the vehicle when it's moving".
As far as I'm concerned, self driving vehicles are "a disaster waiting to happen". In other words, "Murphy's Law". And I'm guessing, self driving vehicles will eventually become a hacker's target as in the IoT's.
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I also like to be in control and I like to drive. Not in traffic mind you, but I like to drive in most other circumstances. Having said that though, I also know a day will come when age will dictate that I can no longer drive, and I would love to still have the mobility of a car, even if I’m not able to function behind the wheel. I’m guessing it will be a while before that is allowed, as I’m sure for the first few years they will only allow fully functional drivers even in a driverless car. But I can image that one day this is going to be a major benefit to those that for whatever reason are not able to drive.
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^^^ that kinda scares me. How it responds in an emergency situation is the big unknown for me. Give it 3 risks to consider and make a split second choice. Also snow and inclement conditions might cause major problems - etc etc.
Give me what I have right now. That is perfect for me. Seems all of the fun of sport driving and carving fast turns will be history. Maybe if 90 that might be ok though. ;D
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Self-driving cars are going to save lives, reduce emissions, and provide added mobility to many. And we don't need to worry about losing the fun of driving. In our lifetimes, we'll always be able to go manual if we want. win-win-win
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We won't see the real benefits if we are still able to take manual control. Human nature being what it is and knowing that you can pull in front of an autonomous vehicle = lots of them being cut off.....especially in Boston where a turn signal is already considered a sign a weakness.... :)
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To add a little more for myself. The bottom line for self driving vehicles is a "trust issue" and I don't trust a self driving vehicle whether being in one acting as a passenger or when I'm manually driving my own vehicle and one of these SDV is coming towards me in the opposite lane.
I never jumped on the battery operated vehicle bandwagon and I won't be jumping on the SDV one either.
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Give it 3 risks to consider and make a split second choice. Also snow and inclement conditions might cause major problems - etc etc.
Yeah, windy roads alternating between wet, thick slush, and black ice with huge puddles and potholes...animals jumping in front of you.......I am already a horrible passenger with someone I know is giving it their all.
I can imagine going along in the slush.......windshield gets splattered from something passing....just keep on going without turning the wipers on cuz you don't need them I guess. Hell, might be nice not to see what's really going on sometimes.
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If I can go to sleep in Seattle and wake up in Tofino (or Whistler) along with 10 million+ others we will need autonomous boards.
20,000,000,000,000,000 calculations per second (+Moore's Law) w/ radar,
car-to-car position, speed, wheel position, brake status, ... gyroscopes
Slush vs landing a rocket upright.
Tech is starting to change faster than society's adaptation capacity.
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I'm absolutely all for it but we have to have the human element gone to make it safer and to make it really efficient. When all the vehicles are talking to each other and the need for all the human design elements are gone...except for pedestrian areas. What does it cost to maintain traffic signals, signs, road paint, etc...? Vehicles will move faster, be closer together, making existing roads more efficient. They'll change lanes when it makes sense not speed up to get around that school bus and then cut off the little old lady to make their exit. They'll share destinations on highways and form trains to reduce energy consumption. All kinds of benefits to having that added time. I've commuted to Boston for almost 20 years, Foxboro for 7 and Providence for 6.....roughly calculated....870 days of driving :o :o :o Being afraid of autonomous vehicles is unwarranted if we don't let people drive.
And think of the side benefits....no more bank robberies......of course by that time we won't have physical banks anyway.
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...especially in Boston where a turn signal is already considered a sign a weakness.... :)
Ha! Made my day.
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I enjoy driving--in a race car, where everyone is going the same direction, no one is drunk or distracted, and everyone has passed driving tests that would eliminate 99.9% of the current drivers on the road.
Everyone believes they are an above-average driver. Delusional. If you're driving for pleasure on transportation roads, pushing your grocery getter to some high percentage of its performance envelope, then you are not only breaking the law, you're endangering yourself and everyone around you. You're not a good driver, you're a hazard that doesn't understand the limitations of your car. The better the car, the bigger the problem. There are no transportation roads that can safely permit a Ferrari to achieve more than 20 percent of its performance envelope. The sightlines are too short, surfaces too unpredictable, and there are distracted idiots driving in the opposite direction, not to mention kids, dogs, and delivery trucks turning left.
Yes, I know, you're special.
The reason why Formula 1 restricts the amount of control of race cars from the pits, is that a robot could drive a Formula 1 race car much better than Lewis Hamilton. Under any conditions. Ask any engineer--an autonomous race car would dust any human driver, with millimeter precision and reaction times measured in nanoseconds. The fastest human reaction time ever measured is 0.101 seconds, and the average is about .2 seconds. An autonomous car could sense a limit and react to it a few million times in .1 seconds.
I've driven a self-driving Tesla. I can now easily tell a self-driving car from a human-driven one. The self-driving car is the one keeping an adequate distance, signaling for every lane change, making safe and decisive passes, and staying precisely in their lane. In other words, the much better-driven car.
Once autonomous cars become common, I predict the $500 billion dollars in insurance burden for the 1.3 million deaths and 15 million serious injuries per year in car accidents (3300 deaths a day) will fall on the people who continue to drive manually--because the autonomous cars won't be participating in accidents. You have to build a really stupid autonomous car for it to perform as badly as the average driver. At full level four autonomy the car will be a much better, much safer driver than any human can be. Add in the ability for all autonomous cars to share data and you have a system that is absurdly more capable. Once we have the technical ability and sufficient data to build level four cars it would be morally unacceptable not to do so. The human cost of manual driving is horrific.
Get ready to pay your true share in insurance if you put a hand on that wheel. Won't happen in five years, but at typical fleet replacement cycle times (shorter in rich countries) I expect half of the cars on the road will be autonomous in 20 years, and probably all of the big trucks, delivery vehicles, taxis and emergency vehicles.
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I would love nothing more than letting my car drive me where I wanted to go.
Imagine an enjoyable late night dinner in the back seat, followed by 2 Negra Modelos and waking up across the border at my secret spot X?
Que bueno.
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I would love nothing more than letting my car drive me where I wanted to go.
Imagine an enjoyable late night dinner in the back seat, followed by 2 Negra Modelos and waking up across the border at my secret spot X?
Que bueno.
You and me brother! Surf, handmade tortillas, beans, eggs and Modelos. Let the antonomous driver car pay the Policia off.
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Si.
Diane and I had lunch at the Rider's Club this afternoon. Could have used an autonomous car after that. Had to settle for a walk to wake up.
Great hamburgers. Pretty much the best I've ever had except the ones I make myself that are ten bucks worth of beef per burger.
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not a fan. I suppose they will be better drivers. but to me it is sort of the first step in giving up on simply doing things. There is a great deal of pleasure on doing things for your self. That being said I see an enormous amount of people who would benefit from this. But it isn't for me all of the time . I could see some benefits sometimes though.
I drive a jeep sometimes I change my mind about where I want to go and this dirt road looks interesting hmm. So what does a self driving car do there. I am sure it would figure it out. Meanwhile humans get dumber and dumber.
Check out the Boston Robotics you tube videos. Now consider the warnings of many such as Steven Hawking about AI. now look at those robots. it is not to hard to imagine terminator from there.. Just think 100 years go science fiction then has become reality now.
There was a story some Many years ago about a contest to predict the future of transportation this is as I recall before flight. The winner predicted airline transportation. Th point is what we see as sci fi now has a way of becoming the real in the future.
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Already many have no clue how to drive stick. Have no idea what is heel and toe. Have no idea how to adjust throttle - braking - and turn in to maintain control. That was all lost with ABS and ESC and TC etc. Many have no driving skill at all. See it all the time in the city and up in snowy mtn roads. In the ditch everywhere with AWD and AS crap tires - and no clue how to really drive properly. Turn off all the electrics and it would be a massive mess out there in snow and rain.
Take away even more -> and these peeeps will have even less skill. In some ways that is good. Less risk on the road. So in that way -> def can see a need and benefit. Many of us have max discounts and no accidents etc. Hmmm - wonder why? ???
Would prefer we could fly in an automated car - or be transported. Beam me up Scotty!! ;D ;D ;D
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I'm also not a fan of self driving vehicles. The bottom line; I want to be in control of a vehicle when I'm alone inside itwhich means I want to be "behind the wheel steering the vehicle when it's moving".
As far as I'm concerned, self driving vehicles are "a disaster waiting to happen". In other words, "Murphy's Law". And I'm guessing, self driving vehicles will eventually become a hacker's target as in the IoT's.
Being in control is a relative term....with 35000 people dying in traffic accidents every year in the US alone...the term "in control" takes on a completely different meaning.
I can't wait until my car can drive on its own.
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Was told that a very large % here actually have the max insurance discount. Which was oddly very surprising. Many have the 43% claims free discount applied for many many years. The ones that cause the most accidents were of course -> young new drivers. They are penalized huge and pay a hefty surcharge. For those similar -> they should all be mandated immediately to own and use a self-driving car! Some that have DUI convictions need to install an engine cut-out etc. ;D
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"One problem with trusting autonomous vehicle software to control a two-ton car (or a 16-ton semi-tractor truck) is that each manufacturer programs its product differently from its competitors. And, if a software glitch exists in one vehicle, it exists in the entire line of cars or trucks."
http://www.computerworld.com/article/3171160/car-tech/heres-why-self-driving-cars-may-never-really-be-self-driving.html
"It has been suggested that insurers will act as a middleman for manufacturers so that anyone injured by an autonomous car can claim against the owner's insurance and not have to file a private liability claim against the car maker."
https://www.engadget.com/2017/02/23/uk-government-vehicle-technology-aviation-bill/
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Si.
Diane and I had lunch at the Rider's Club this afternoon. Could have used an autonomous car after that. Had to settle for a walk to wake up.
Great hamburgers. Pretty much the best I've ever had except the ones I make myself that are ten bucks worth of beef per burger.
You got me thinking about Riders Club. I had to go there today for a burger. Soo good. I had mine cooked medium with roasted green peppers and Havarti cheese.
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I'm also not a fan of self driving vehicles. The bottom line; I want to be in control of a vehicle when I'm alone inside itwhich means I want to be "behind the wheel steering the vehicle when it's moving".
As far as I'm concerned, self driving vehicles are "a disaster waiting to happen". In other words, "Murphy's Law". And I'm guessing, self driving vehicles will eventually become a hacker's target as in the IoT's.
Being in control is a relative term....with 35000 people dying in traffic accidents every year in the US alone...the term "in control" takes on a completely different meaning.
I can't wait until my car can drive on its own.
Then we are in agreement to disagree because neither one of us will ever change the other's mind on this score.
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"It is a formidable challenge to define the algorithms that will guide AVs confronted with such moral dilemmas. In particular, these moral algorithms will need to accomplish three potentially incompatible objectives: being consistent, not causing public outrage, and not discouraging buyers."
https://techxplore.com/news/2015-10-self-driving-cars-ethical.html
"The answer to questions about safety might come down to how much we trust self-driving cars, regardless of how many lives they can save, Rahwan said. For example, if autonomous vehicles save the lives of thousands of motorists but cause fatalities of cyclists and pedestrians to increase, the public's trust in the technology is likely to erode."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news/89634817/the-big-moral-dilemma-facing-selfdriving-cars
Def if you want to give control over to some software program. Do it. Can just imagine sitting in a car and thinking -> Bad move. Real bad move... Nope not for me either. All yours. But 90 yeah -> after they take my license away for poor vision and hearing. Haha!
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Yup.... ok, I give up....
I guess what we need to do is, research ALL the ways that people die and put an end to every one of them.
SUP, surfing, mowing the lawn, reading a book.... and how many people die getting laid each year?
My God.... the horrors!
Then we need someone to tell us what we shouldn't be allowed to do, because we are not perfectly qualified. A Tzar of American imperfections.
If I was a hacker bent on reeking havoc in the USA.... I'd be praying for a grid of self driving vehicles.... the bigger the better. "ALL CARS.... accelerate and turn left!"
How much freedom, fun, and enjoyment has the Automobile given to generations of Americans?
America is in love with it's cars, for many very good reasons.
I hate the idea of a future where parents can retrieve their kids, simply by sending the "get home" code to the car... so much for "Summer of 42" in the backseat
Lets just turn over every fricking interesting aspect of our lives to government control...... for safety.....for the children!
Crap... I gotta get old and die fast, while we're still actually living. :-X
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That's the thing. For a HUGE selection of society, driving isn't fun. The research is undeniable about how bad commuting in cars is for health & well being. Not everyone is cruising on a date, or are driving to the beach. Never mind the fact there are a lot of people who can't drive. I have one friend who can't get her license due to a medical condition. This tech is going to have a huge positive impact on her life.
And the lives lost and injuries due to car accidents can't be compared to sports & recreational activities (or mowing the lawn). Maybe one day, we won't be allowed to take control, but for a long time it'll be our choice. Having the option will be amazing.
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There are times I like driving. Along the beach, in the snow or just four wheeling. But young drivers are more interested in texting or fondling their phones, then they are watching the road. It makes sense for them.
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There are times I like driving. Along the beach, in the snow or just four wheeling. But young drivers are more interested in texting or fondling their phones, then they are watching the road. It makes sense for them.
I'll swing both ways there. When I'm driving to the coast to go surfing, I love being behind the wheel. But at 8:30 on a Monday morning on the way to work in city traffic, I'd rather be on my phone browsing through The Zone!
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Crap... I gotta get old and die fast, while we're still actually living. :-X
Well, that's one solution. I doubt you get as much pleasure from actually driving your car as you pretend. Especially in traffic on the cape. Stick your board on the roof, climb in, take a nap and you're there. I've driven and owned a lot of the really fun cars in the world. Five percent pleasure, 95 percent tedium. Even in a Ferrari. Unless you drive it to be seen.
You really don't need to worry about it. You're old. you don't need to rush off, you can drive whatever you like. Kids two generations down the pike are the ones that will never drive, and they'll think people who did were silly, careless and stupid. I'm pretty sure they'll find places to get laid.
I wish it were coming sooner, because I'm old, and I want a 4G car.
Generally it's like SUPs. The people who haven't tried it have a million reasons why it's bad, most of them based in some nostalgic notion of a past they didn't really have. People who have tried it say "wow, I could get used to this". It feels better than having someone drive you--more trustworthy. Odd, but true.
No one has brought up the ethical dilemmas--does your car protect your life at the expense of others? What happens when it's one of you vs. ten others.
I can build any number of artificial constructs if I want to write a pithy and contrary article. But really the likely required demonstrable level of safety means the occurrence is unlikely.
It's not really constructive to think of them as algorithms. the basis is machine learning, which embeds response in tested data, not some string of "if there's a dog in the crosswalk, do this". By the time we have level 4 autonomous cars everywhere they will have billions of miles worth of data and extracted learning.
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ok.... like I said, I give up.Yup Pono.... I pretend to like it because you say so. God I'm glad you are here to tell me how I really feel.
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Glad to be of Cervix.
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I have had a computer since the time when you booted them with discs. In that 30 plus years, I doubt that this simple device spent more than one or two percent of its life without a glitch, hardware issue, bug, virus, or something unexplained that would from time to time piss me off. Only one other trapping of modern society is able to cause creative vulgarity to flow from my lips, and that would be my cars. Brilliant. Lets have a marriage, pop out a baby, and let it have full control of my safety and well being.
I'll concede that driving is more often a pain in the ass than pleasure. So is fatherhood, and I wouldn't have it any other way. Ceding total control to electronics is just not something I am comfortable with. I can read maps and generally know when my GPS is full of bovine scat. It happens way too much. Not a fan. However, there is also a large percentage of the populace that has no ability to drive safely, and for them, automation is the best option available (besides mulching the lot of 'em).
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This tech isn't going to be the same as trying to play Space Taxi on your VIC 20! (kidding)
The opinions on this post are pretty interesting. This tech is going to make the roads safer, no question. But some don't/won't trust it. That's not surprising though--it's human nature to feel more comfortable when you are in control of your own fate. When my kids take their first trip to Mars (don't laugh), I want tech flying the rocket--not some dude holding a joy stick.
I think the reservations expressed about losing the cultural impact of driving is something we'll see more and more. The younger generations won't share the nostalgia, but the transition might be tough for our generations. But that happens with most tech. Remember trying to teach you parents how to use a VCR? People used to complain about the negative impacts telephones would have on the telegraph.
The impact on jobs is going to be a tough one to get through.
But love it or hate it, you have to admit the tech and progress are impressive. Telsa and others have been releasing lower levels of self-driving cars for a while now, but those two demos posted above really knocked it home for me how close it is to hitting a tipping point.
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by the way, how's that self surfing Kronos longboard working out for you?
(ride report required)
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by the way, how's that self surfing Kronos longboard working out for you? (ride report required)
With my shoulder, I need that board to be self-surfing! Maiden session will be March 10!
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America is in love with it's cars, for many very good reasons.
Hey Creek, one piece of good news is Google is out of making cars. No more bubble mobiles. We might get some of those rocket cars after all (though probably powered by electrons).
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America is in love with it's cars, for many very good reasons.
Hey Creek, one piece of good news is Google is out of making cars. No more bubble mobiles. We might get some of those rocket cars after all (though probably powered by electrons).
Actually, they spun it out. the company is now called Waymo. www.waymo.com So you can still get that bubble surfmobile you want Creek. No steering wheel at all.
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Actually, they spun it out. the company is now called Waymo. www.waymo.com So you can still get that bubble surfmobile you want Creek. No steering wheel at all.
Oh, that's just great.
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The world's quickest car is now a Tesla 4 door. 2.28 seconds 0-60 for the P100D. Ludicrous indeed. Front page of today's WSJ.
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I thought the Porsche 918 Spyder (2017 model) can go from 0-60 mph in 2.20 seconds and if it can then that beats the Tesla.
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I wonder why the WSJ didn't mention that. They say the La Ferrari was #1, now #2.
The article also gets another thing wrong--they claim the advantage of electric motors is that they have instant torque. The actual advantage is that they are thermodynamically efficient and don't need to reject at least 53 percent of the power as heat (more like 60). Instant torque is certainly an element, but it's more important that you can get 400 horsepower from a motor a little bigger than a coffee can.
And they misunderstand the battery heating issue. If you design the system for normal operation you need to reject about 10 percent of the power being used as heat--both from the motor and the battery. Building the car for maximum aero efficiency means tiny radiators with managed airflow, not a garage door at the front of the car. The radiator on my new diesel truck looks like it could cool a nuclear reactor. A La Ferrari has five radiators.
So yeah, maybe they got it wrong and the five-passenger luxury grocery getter slots between a 918 and a La Ferrari.
But hey, it's a newspaper.
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"Autopilot is getting better all the time, but it is not perfect and still requires the driver to remain alert,” the company said.
Based on vid footage of near misses -> maybe best that the bugs are worked out before taking your eyes off the road. But for the early adopters - you can be first with this right now. Very unfortunate software error. The vid below was from the driver showing the system in action.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/30/tesla-autopilot-death-self-driving-car-elon-musk
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/07/02/tesla-autopilot-fatality-timeline-facts/
https://youtu.be/9I5rraWJq6E
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"You could be asleep the whole time - uhmm - and do so very safely"
"If there is an accident the driver of the car is still liable. So we are very clearly saying this is not a case of abdicating responsibility"
Elon Musk - check out his vid here ->
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/oct/21/tesla-autopilot-goes-wrong-videos
The more early adopters the better. Maybe after the real danger bugs have been worked out - might consider this. But till then -> you first. We need a lot of beta testers first though. And a few more real life accidents vs speculation. ;)
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Missing that truck in the vid was way too close of a call.
A driver that has plenty of skill and demonstrated expertise on any roadway should be much better able to cope with the myriad of emergency situations that arise second to second. We do that all the time. Defensive driving to the max but know when to accelerate and go with the flow or separate. Claims free max discount is key. Apparently most on the roadways in BC have max discount. Driving on a track to practice evasive maneuvers is important as well. You need to know the handling limits of your vehicle in emergency situations - and should practice in adverse conditions to get better.
Speculating that this way of hands off driving is safe -> is off base. It may be safer for many but looks to be unsafe for others more skilled than a computer program. This tech is in its infancy and has a very long way to go. But do please buy one of these and add to the millions of miles using this automation. It needs all those millions of miles and more -> to work out the bugs. This is not just a home computer that has a little glitch that you can debug easily and safely. It puts your life at risk and your family at risk and others at risk. Certainly buy one though and use it now. Put it through its paces. Tesla needs a lot of beta testers and accidents to sort through all the crap algorithms that remain.
Just seems so risky to put so much faith in early adopter beta software. But hey - everyone makes their own choice on what they trust and not trust. So do it. Buy one and put it into auto mode. And doze off - drink some wine - play cards or chess - or check your email going 70. You should hopefully arrive at your destination fresh as a daisy. Or not.
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So what percentage of drivers do you think know how to respond to a simple spin? one percent? i think thats wildly optimistic.
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ABS ESC TC all are useful. Even PDK. Removed a lot of driver skill out of the equation. Still remember how many 911s went backwards off the track back in the day. So have come a long way. After a few more hundred million miles the system might figure out that a white semi is not an overhead pass.
Elon saying you can be asleep - and do so safely - is so very silly. But peeeps actually believe this bs crap.
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Beta test means beta test.
"In August, Tesla revised the language on its China website to remove the term "self-driving" after a driver who had crashed while using Autopilot claimed that the company had exaggerated the system's capabilities."
"Perfect safety is an impossible goal," Musk said during a press conference on the Autopilot upgrade. "We are increasing the probability of safety."
"It is not designed to cover all possible crash situations in a safe manner," said Mobileye Chairman Amnon Shashua on Wednesday, Sept. 14."
Many in my area have Teslas. They are very common. But the drivers behind the wheel should probs take a few advanced DE events to understand the risks involved at speed. Powerful cars -> are very dangerous for inept drivers. But still Tesla needs a lot more beta testers. A lot more. So get one. For the price and quality - my little old school hands-on the wheel short shift mid-engine drop top Porsche S is way better. And way more fun. Haha!
http://www.autonews.com/article/20160919/OEM/309199962/lawsuit-adds-to-scrutiny-of-teslas-autopilot?CSAuthResp=1%3A1173638648625445%3A423310%3A8273%3A24%3Aapproved%3A9B805E36CFCFD6E5DF8702E0E18B3723
https://youtu.be/TSN3gDUNpXQ
https://youtu.be/fc0yYJ8-Dyo
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Self driving tech isn't aimed at people wanting to rip around in Porches or just have fun going out for a drive. Ya, the ai is gaining a lot of experience from rich folks who can afford powerful Teslas at the moment, but soon, it's going to start being implemented into society at a greater rate benefiting soccer Moms driving mini-vans, seniors getting to their bridge games (or their local SUP beach! ;) ), and stressed out white collar workers as they multi-task on their commute to work. The ai will only get better as more general drivers start using it. So ya, you can say it's in beta, but it already has a lot of miles logged and cars with self-driving tech have less accidents & deaths than those without it per mile driven. That will only get better.
As this tech starts getting implemented, every accident involving self-driving tech will be a major news item. But keep in mind, in 2015, 4 people died per hour in the US due to car accidents (35,092 total). That number goes up to 1.2 million deaths world wide per year.
All of us are going to think "ya, but not for me...I'm a better driver than self-driving cars will be". That's simply not true for the vast majority....but is definitely human nature to think it. Most people think they are above average.
The "saftey debate" isn't really much of a debate and the numbers will show it. The other effects on society are going to be really interesting as it will be transformative (with some inevitable humps to get over).
My parents are getting to the age where driving is going to start becoming an issue. This tech will likely end up increasing the amount of time they end up spending with their grandkids. Gold.
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As noted when I am 90 -> I will probs buy into that. Thank goodness we are way past the soccer mom days. We had a crap Sienna for that. Haha!
Tesla has removed the term "self-driving". That is key to note. The Tesla auto does not really self-drive safely. That is the point. When my kids have kids - we will pulling up in the Porsche. While they happily drive along never exceeding the posted speed limit in complete blissful serenity and safety.
Tesla is also doing its best to skew the number argument as well. Tesla btw uses the term "beta test".
"Tesla uses the term "beta test" for drivers currently deploying the latest version of the Autopilot system, which was introduced in October 2015. During the Sept. 11 press conference, Musk said he uses the term to ensure drivers will be especially cautious when activating the technology."
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I totally agree. Tesla calling it Autopilot (and using the term self-driving) was a bad call. Irresponsible. It was not and is not yet Level 4. I'm just super impressed with how close we are to Level 4 now. It's right around the corner and will be a game changer.
I truly hope you'll be speeding up to your grandkids house in a Porsche. That's cool. Very cool. I hope I'll be able to do that too. I also hope you don't become one of those drivers at 85 who think they can drive like they could at 60 and put people like your kids' kids who are diving along never exceeding the posted speed limit in complete blissful serenity and safety at risk. ...and ain't it nice to know that if life throws you a curve ball where the Porsche isn't an option, you'll still be able to visit the grandkids in your own car (maybe even in a driver-assisted or self-driving Porsche).
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Nah never! ;)
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Here is my son at a DE event. We have our kids learn how to drive properly and safely very early on. Even one day soon he may work for Tesla as an engineer. So you never know. He may even help sort the crap self driving algorithms for them. We talk about this - as we know people who work in design there right now. One of his close friends Dad has one. And one friend of his has worked for Tesla already - and another just starting. Just that self driving is not self driving. Not yet anyways. And beta is beta. People need to be aware of that. Keep your hands ready to take over at all times -> and do not doze off or read emails! ;)
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Here are a couple good tutorial vids showing and describing actual daily use. Basically they do not recommend using autopilot unless conditions are optimal ie. highway stop and go etc. This majorly skews the mileage claims. Both noted when they would have been in accidents if they did not take control. Autopilot blows through red lights and will hit road debris and slam over potholes etc. It ignored cars that would cut in front as well. Elon actually says you should be "especially cautious when activating this technology". Beta is beta ie. no emails. ;)
https://youtu.be/LKRG7aZ4sPo
https://youtu.be/jEKPsd1dirA
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Oh ya, I totally agree. Tesla is not at Level 4 yet, and drivers should stay alert ready to take control. I think they've been too aggressive pushing it. The current early adopters are truly the guinea pigs of this tech--and some aren't ready or responsible enough to properly QA it. I can't believe Tesla has gotten away with their current approach.
What I find fascinating is how many others are working on it (besides Tesla and Google) and how far it's all coming along. That first video I posted is by GM. Ford, VW, Mercedes, BMW, Volvo, Honda, Toyota, Nissan--all the major car manufacturers--are working on it. Even VW's Porsche is working on it despite their CEO's reluctance. There are also a good handful of smaller specialized groups (like in the second vid in the original post) pushing the tech forward. Miles are getting logged at an increasing pace and even though the stakeholders are keeping things close (though based on Uber/Waymo, not successfully at times) there is a collective progress going on.
So if we assume the tech will get to Level 4 (I'm confident it will, others may disagree) or even Level 5, it's going to be interesting to see how fast it does or doesn't get adopted. If adoption comes quickly, how will it effect jobs, social behavior, the car industry, the economy, etc? If EVs end up taking off (I think eventually its inevitable, others may disagree) the previous question becomes even more interesting.
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It def is a work in progress. Tesla is very happy it has willing and able guinea pig early adopters to help work out the bugs for them. For cars my risk tolerance is low. Just too risky to be sitting in a 4000 lb car knowing that the system is not approved by the manufacturer to work all the time safely on its own. If there always needs to be someone making sure it does not crash -> then better to just take control yourself all the time. Having a false sense of security then reacting to avoid an accident in a split second seems potentially extremely dangerous and very counter-productive. It goes against smart driving skills.
The "follow" algorithm is something we would never do at speed on the highway - but seems a big part of the system. If we had to click on and off that system when we drove down to Seattle this past Christmas - that would have been a joke and major frustration all the way. We despise following big trucks or cars blocking our view of the road ahead. They spit up crap and rocks and road slime etc. Instead we buzzed along merrily and safely and quickly away from them. Full attention on the road and our surroundings at all times. Normal safe driving away from wolf packs and crazy inept road rage drivers.
If the software leads to more accidents or fatalities then the tech implementation should slow dramatically. Consumer confidence will likely wane. Even in perfect highway conditions the system cannot always cope properly. So def it is hands in the wheel at all times to be safe. This takes away the appeal for many. So will be very interesting to see how this tech progresses. But for us -> we are fine just the way we are. Old school safe and fun. But change means new $$$ and potential new more expensive cars. Profits based on so-called safety. Hmmm?
As noted early on though - would be ok with "Beam me up Scotty" as well. Haha! ;D
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I agree with you on the Tesla stuff. I also agree that consumer confidence will play a huge factor in adoption. Accidents will continue to receive press coverage that will keep the public on their toes (unfortunately some will continue to drive down the freeway watching Harry Potter before it's safe to do so). It's clear that a lot of people are skeptical on how safe this is or will become. Many believe the roads will become safer; others don't. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.
I'm bullish on where it's going. I think ultimately the roads will get safer and the opportunity for mobility will improve for many. I don't think safe vs fun have to be opposing--those who love driving will still be able to drive (with many of those also enjoying the option of autopilot when they want it).
I do wonder about the "profits based on so-called safety". For some companies, I think they see big opportunity profit-wise (Tesla, Uber, Apple, etc). But I think a lot of the big car manufactures would rather have it so that tech never came into play (as they are with EVs). I think they are coming to terms that they're going to have to participate or risk being left behind (a la Blockbuster). Progess with EVs has been held back to keep profits up. I wonder (and I don't know the answer) if progress on self-driving cars--whether that be development or adoption or law making--might be held back due to profit pressure of larger influential corps?
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All the talk about increased safety is good, and everyone wants safer roadways, but as in everything, there are unintended consequences that arise from completely safe highways.
On the "life for life" exchange
Auto deaths per day = 88
People waiting organ transplant deaths per day = 13
Traffic deaths supply 20% of the transplant organs
121,678 people are awaiting transplants now.
so there IS a life for life reality to this
Then there's the financial impact. Hint.... HUGE
All that mechanize death and mayhem is big business. Really big business.
If you balanced the "risk vs loss", like auto manufacturers do, it becomes interesting.
Lets take Auto Body Industry alone
Employees = 739,850
Yearly pay = $28 Billion per year
What percentage of the entire Insurance industry deals with Auto policy and injury claims?
Insurance industry employees = 2.5 Million people
Yearly pay could total far above $9 Trillion
How much of that would be eliminated?
Emergency response staff, from ambulance to hospital
Rehab staff and facilities
Personal injury lawyers, staff and court costs
Advertising costs associated with this industry
165,000 driving schools
322,800 employees
total yearly revenue = $10 Billion
Police traffic details
Orderly traffic behavior would save the highways
Lost road repair work
Taxi Drivers
School bus drivers
Crossing guards
Mortuary lost revenue
I did some simple, quick research to come up with the above numbers
And thats just playing with this.... dig into the total unintended consequences and it could actually bring the world to it's knees.
How many millions would starve to death after total financial collapse?
or.... we keep enjoying the responsibility (and joy) of driving ourselves and apparently... save the entire world ;D
sample of research below:
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Creek, as the kids would say "I know, right".
If this tech progresses like it's hinting, it will be a major disrupter and have a huge ripple effect across a lot of industries (as you detailed). I don't think we're necessarily prepared for what might be coming. History has shown time and time again that technological progress won't be stopped to preserve the old ways of doing things (or to save jobs). Humans and society will adapt as we have with other disruptive steps we've taken, but it's sure going to be interesting to see how we do it with this one.
Combine all that with what might happen if AI begins to chip away at white collar work, robotics continues to chip away at blue collar work, and the shift to renewable energy changes that whole landscape, and we're looking at a pretty crazy ride over the next few decades.
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In the other thread discussing AI it was said that people will just move to other jobs as they get replaced. What other jobs...no other tech has ever had the potential to be this disruptive. It's across all industies. Are we are moving to guaranteed income and a weird dystopian future?
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http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/19/14326258/teslas-crash-rate-dropped-40-percent-after-autopilot-was-installed-feds-say
According to this article, the crash rate of Tesla's dropped 40% after the introduction of Autopilot. If you drive a Tesla with Autopilot, you will understand why they are so much safer. I believe the biggest improvement in safety for Autopilot comes from Tesla's Traffic Aware Cruise Control. You can use the TACC with or without autopilot, and it will maintain a comfortable distance between you and the car in front of you. If you have engaged TACC, you can then engage autopilot, which will keep the car in well marked lanes and allow you to change lanes by using the turn signal.
Autopilot is only a tool to keep the car in a lane. If the car in front of you slams on their brakes, TACC will brake also. If the car in the lane beside you suddenly veers into your lane, you to take evasive maneuvers, the TACC will only react to a car stopping in front of you, and it certainly can't read cross traffic if you are using it on roads other than expressways.
I wonder if the people who are so sure they won't like autopilot didn't use cruise control when it first became available.
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The government concluded that while advanced driver assist systems (ADAS) like Autopilot may help in reducing auto accidents, they should not supplement or replace a driver’s attention to the road. “While ADAS technologies are continually improving in performance in larger percentages of crash types, a driver should never wait for automatic braking to occur when a collision threat is perceived,” the NHTSA said.
This makes perfect sense and is reflected clearly in the vids posted earlier as well. Those drivers were especially careful to take over immediate control when needed. They did in fact have to take control many times to avoid accidents and potential fatalities. So would expect the millions of tested miles to be much better than the average given the Tesla drivers are notified to be very careful whenever deploying this tech. Tesla seemed to note they should not be held responsible for accidents.
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In the other thread discussing AI it was said that people will just move to other jobs as they get replaced. What other jobs...no other tech has ever had the potential to be this disruptive. It's across all industies. Are we are moving to guaranteed income and a weird dystopian future?
Possibly, but probably not. A utopian view is equally likely and something in the middle of the probability distribution is most likely. I have a hard time viewing pick and place factory jobs as being important to the maturation of humankind as a species. The general structure of society and the physical infrastructure needs substantial upgrading. I think it's no more important to hang on to the current iteration of work than it is to hang onto crashing cars and crushed bodies as a economic stimulant. Remember as you contemplate this that the current reality is incredibly young. Saying the disruption from future tech is somehow greater than anything previously experienced is just silly. In 1950 we had the capability to erase any country from the earth. A hundred years before that wars were fought with muskets and wind powered ships.
I think it's pretty surprising how effective huge manufacturers like GMC have been in building useful EVs, even though they don't market them hard. The Chevy Volt is worthy competition to the Tesla Model 3, and so is the Bolt. I've dug deep into the technology of the volt, and it's pretty magnificent. I considered using the full Volt powertrain and battery for my Electric TR3 project, but Chevy holds all the tech info I'd need for modifying the controllers very close to their chest, so I'll just be using a stripped down Volt battery. I'd say Chevy's tech is as good as Tesla's and in some ways, much better.
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That Bolt here is almost sold out for 2017. Called the dealer a couple of days ago and only one can still be had to any specs you want. Maybe down the road something like that will appeal. Decent tech. All the other brands will have electrics soon for EPA ratings etc.
Had a TR as my very first drop top when about 20. Fun car in its day but very gutless. A nice powerful electric motor swap would have been nice back then. But not Lucas electric crap though. ;)
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Saying the disruption from future tech is somehow greater than anything previously experienced is just silly. In 1950 we had the capability to erase any country from the earth. A hundred years before that wars were fought with muskets and wind powered ships.
^ good point.
For my cohort (born in the early 70s), the major disrupter that we've lived through is the birth of the internet. We entered University without it (for all intensive purposes) and left with it in play. For me and a large portion of my friends, our jobs exist because of the internet. Was there a point as the internet was taking root that people worried about a loss of jobs? The postal service? Retail? I don't remember that, but we were all too busy salivating on how to take advantage of this new thing.
So as we look at all the jobs that are going to fall by the wayside when AI, self-driving cars and renewable energy start taking off, it'll be cool to see what jobs that we haven't thought of yet open up.
That Bolt here is almost sold out for 2017. Called the dealer a couple of days ago and only one can still be had to any specs you want. Maybe down the road something like that will appeal. Decent tech. All the other brands will have electrics soon for EPA ratings etc.
A friend of mine (fellow SUPer) has a Bolt coming in a month or two (ordered was placed back in November). I'm excited to try it. Another one of my surf buddies drives a Volt. It is slick. I have a Leaf, and even though it's a good gen behind this new breed of EVs and is pretty much a jelly bean on wheels, I love it. I'll never go back to internal combustion. I know they aren't for everyone, but EVs fit my lifestyle pretty well (including being lazy about stopping for gas and getting cars serviced, and being an earth-loving hippie at heart). I'm in line for the Model 3 so I should get my butt in that seat come 2018 (...but more likely 2019).
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I'm building mine with everything badged to look like it's Lucas, but it's actually modern electronics. The motor will deliver about 110HP and 140ft/lbs of torque. I'd like to make it a single speed so I can move the motor to the middle of the car, but it's much easier to build it with a transmission.
I can get about 130HP at the rear wheels with a TR3/4 motor, reliable for racing, brutal for street. Steel crank, Carillo or Pauter rods, big valves, flowed and ported, bored to 87mm, webers, lumpy cam, light flywheel, Tilton clutch, Quaife dog box transmission. A lot of work for not a lot of horsepower, but the racing is fun.
The last company (except for Ke Nalu) that I started was a direct marketing agency specializing in technology clients. When we started the company the internet was still mostly browserless. We experienced the disruption of the internet and web firsthand. We had to transition from direct mail to web- and email-based marketing. Our clients initially believed none of their customers were on the web, and later believed that paper mail was pointless because everyone was on the web.
Times change.
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I'm not talking about disruption in general...and I think comparing weapons development to jobs only makes my point. It was and is massively different. That same shift and level productivity (if you can call efficiency in destruction productivity) is now coming to the corner store, factory, restaurant, construction company, and everything else near you. How is that not going to displace millions and millions of workers? I don't know how many new types of jobs can be created in the same time period. And it will go even further in the future as the tech gets better and better. I just don't see man being competitive with AI and robotics 20- 30 years from now....in almost anything.
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I think one of the most likely scenarios is humanity enhanced. We actually already know how to edit genes to make people smarter. We'll also soon be able to connect human and artificial memory and processing. You might find that distressing and disgusting, but if it's feasible, people will do it. It's going to be feasible. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to find China already doing some of it.
Picture China's next generation being ten percent smarter.
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It's funny you say that. I was just talking to Sue about that. I don't find it distressing or disgusting at all...I'd love to always remember where the fuck I left my keys.... :). Beyond the obvious near term connections that are already happening and will eventually become more the norm for existence here amongst the machines we'll absolutely need genetic manipulation and augmentation for existence in space and other planets. I don't doubt the exciting possibilities for humankind in the future but I think we are going to see technological and cultural shifts the likes of which the world has never seen in the next 50 years.
Times change for sure but it's the pace of change and the inability of our leaders to plan and adapt that I'm worried about.....that and mans capacity for greed and corruption.
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The larger question is not the technology, which is coming fast, but what it means for transportation in general. With Uber's current funding round valuation ($62 billion) They could obviously afford to buy the full output of Tesla for the foreseeable future. If they don't, or are not allowed to, then they probably disappear.
Tesla executes the Tesla Networks concept, Tesla autonomous car owners release their cars to the network when they don't need them, earning a return on ownership of their cars. The USA then has a fleet of autonomous taxis larger than the current fleet (250,000), probably by a factor of ten. The cost for getting a ride wherever you want to go, without any appreciable wait, drops to some fraction of what it is today. Tesla has a new continuous revenue stream that dwarfs anything Uber ever sees with no added cost other than developing and maintaining software and TCO of a Tesla drops well below anything that burns gas.
I don't think I'm speculating here. I think I'm articulating an obvious game plan. The only open question is whether or not Musk thinks there is any advantage in partnering with Uber.
I think not.
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It's funny you say that. I was just talking to Sue about that. I don't find it distressing or disgusting at all...I'd love to always remember where the fuck I left my keys.... :).
I've always said "I wish I was doing drugs, so I could STOP IT!!!" - if I could keep things in my brain I'd be dangerous. Sign me up for brain augmentation asap.
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The larger question is
Where can I get self driving Golf Clubs?
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The larger question is
Where can I get self driving Golf Clubs?
I read they're coming next, now that they've finished the self-driving screws.
But who needs them, anyway, since most golf club sets come with their own drivers.
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I often feel like a driverless golfer...
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Interesting article in Forbes on Tesla: https://www.forbes.com/sites/aalsin/2017/03/14/why-general-motors-has-already-lost-to-tesla
The forbes site is very irritating, with crappy music popping up every so often from autorun videos. There's an edited excerpt of the article here: https://evannex.com/blogs/news/heres-why-gm-will-lose-to-tesla
The gist of the article is that GM is acting as a disrupted vertical being overtaken by a typically more horizontal upstart. GMC is wasting stockholder money doing buybacks to bump it's stock to please activist hedge fund stockholders while Tesla is building the Gigafactory. GMC could have built three gigafactories for the cost of their 18 billion buyback.
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The larger question is
Where can I get self driving Golf Clubs?
I read they're coming next, now that they've finished the self-driving screws.
But who needs them, anyway, since most golf club sets come with their own drivers.
I heard that Amazon is coming out with a new Alexa for the golf bag, you just have to ask it which club to use, taking out all the thinking required to play the game. Now not only do you not have to think at home, but you won't have to think at play either.
Next the water proof version, "no, not that wave, wait for the next one", you just have to stick it to the deck of your board.
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I'll take one. I'm constantly going for the first wave in a set. knowing that if I miss it, I'm gonna get slammed. Alexa would say--"Hey, stupid. Take the third wave. It's a three wave set, no one will be in position for number three." And then I'd go for the first wave anyway.
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I'm not much of a golfer, but I cringe when someone in my foursome shouts out the yardage from a GPS. Somehow it didn't bother me pre-GPS when someone would pull out an optical rage finder. Judging the distance, wind, etc. is a big part of the game for me. I suppose buying new gadgets is a big part of golf for others.
If I had Alexa talking me through a prone surf session, I would probably hear, "a little late popping up again!" ;D
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Not self driving and not a car ...but Jeff Bezos is definitely auditioning for the part of the super villain in the next 007 flick.
(https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/A0nzU0A5Lo91azaUYB5IzUAe0Hw=/1200x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8188559/Screen_Shot_2017_03_20_at_9.12.57_AM.png)
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A peak into Nissan's progress...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfRqNAhAe6c